Confidence Calibration Prompt

Forces a number on how confident you are in a campaign, price, or hire, then states the exact gap from what the evidence justifies.

A campaign, a price increase, or a hire rarely gets evaluated as a number. It gets a feeling, "I think this will work," and the business commits budget on the strength of that feeling alone. This prompt forces a 0 to 100 confidence score on the specific claim first, then runs an evidence audit, a base rate check, and an asymmetry test to produce the number the evidence actually justifies.

The gap between the two gets classified as slight, large, or severe, never left as a vague sense that something might be off. If the confidence is inflated, the fix is a smaller, reversible test with a stated kill criterion, not more caution talk. If it is deflated, the fix is raising commitment, because hedging has its own cost.

Built for the moment before you commit budget to a bet you have never actually numbered. You walk away with two explicit numbers, a classified gap, and the one piece of evidence that would move the score.